In recent days, the conflict between Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation cannot be unseen. Further, we are going to try explaining you, why the Kremlin uses the so-called “Wagnerians” as cannon fodder, and what to prepare for the mobilized Russians.
Empires always fight with other people’s hands because all revolutions take place in metropolises, not colonies. Therefore, in order not to lose the popularity of the war, they fight with the hands of enslaved peoples whose dissatisfaction with the war will not be noticed in the capital.
It is no secret that the first wave of mobilization almost did not end in Moscow or St. Petersburg. It is no secret that the army in the Russian Federation is the only social elevator for the inhabitants of the province because the Russian Federation is a purely centralized state, where life in remote areas is doomed.
In addition, most of the occupying troops are representatives of ethnic groups occupied by Moscow: Buryats, Ingush, Caucasian peoples, etc. They were the ones who most recognized the losses at the beginning of the war, when the funeral processions flew across the province, and not in Moscow.
However, Russian society because of the “October Revolution” still has one more specificity, namely, a clear division into classes. Where there are proletarians, intelligentsia, party nomenclature, security forces and some kind of businessmen-artisans, most of whom are dependent on the same security forces.
And even here the empire found a way out in the form of the creation of so-called private military companies. Let’s immediately note that PVK “Wagner” is a purely terrorist organization and is not legally a military company, because such activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation.
The death of the “Wagners” benefits everyone among Russian society
The Russian command is actively throwing the Wagnerites as assault meat on the positions of the Armed Forces because it has a unique situation where the death of a mercenary is beneficial to all parties to the conflict except for the Wagnerite himself.
First, the death of a Wagnerian does not cause any social tension in the Russian Federation. Because he is like an ideological volunteer, and the main thing is that most of them are imprisoned for brutal murders. That is, society does not have proper empathy for them.
Second is payments. Wagnerites serve for six months and receive approximately 240,000 rubles per month of service. Russian soldiers in the Soviet Union receive roughly the same amount of money. However, not all Wagner soldiers serve their contract in full due to the specifics of their use in combat. According to some estimates, the group has already lost 30% of its personnel.
It is also worth noting that payments for the death of “PvK “Wagner” amount to 3 to 5 million rubles, while for the death of a soldier in the Russian army consist of 7 million rubles. It means that Wagner group costs the Kremlin cheaper.
Thirdly, no one is looking for Wagnerites. Most of them are relapses who have not maintained contact with their relatives for a long time. At the same time, the Russians do not take away the bodies of mercenaries who go to the position of the Armed Forces, and if there is no body, there is no payment. Even if they are looking for Wagnerites, relatives can always be informed that the mercenary lives further in the colony, but in a different one. Such a case has already been recorded by BBC journalists.
The fourth reason is the deprivation of the influence of Yevgeny Prigozhin. We have already written that feudal attitudes are gaining popularity in the Russian ruling elite when each of the towers of the Kremlin is preparing for a change of power. In this process, it is important to have support from the “praetorians” – a military group that will become a trump card in the clan struggle for power.
And if the security forces have such an opportunity according to the law, then Prigozhin or Kadyrov do not. In autumn, it seemed that Prigozhin had received carte blanche, because he placed his men in command (surovykin) and seized the initiative on the front near Bakhmut, in fact, his mercenaries began to storm the city.
However, everything has already been played out. Surovykin was removed and Gerasimov returned, who hates Putin’s control. On the other hand, the Wagnerites suffered losses, and therefore lost their combat capability, and with that, they also lost their influence. The latter understands that he was used and is being made a scapegoat, so he launched a media attack on Sergei Shoigu, accusing him of blocking the supply of ammunition.
What is next?
Here is the most interesting. Other people’s hands for the empire are running out. Of course, the Russian repressive model allows you to recruit people to prisons, where they can then become contractors of the “Wagner”, but these people will be less motivated, and Prigozhin himself does not know where he will end up in a few months.
The new wave of mobilization that the Kremlin is preparing will already affect the “titular nation” (Russians), because the human resource of the provinces is not infinite, and further ignoring the conscription of the inhabitants of the west of the Russian Federation will lead to an increase in the feudal sentiments of local leaders of the conditional Kazan or Makhachkali.
But no one cancels the tactics of throwing at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because this is how the Russian Federation waged wars from time immemorial. Therefore, the Wagnerians will throw the mobilized into positions, and indiscriminately on his ethnicity.
Therefore, now Russia and the leader of the occupiers, Vladimir Putin, are trying to turn this war into a sacred one to motivate residents of large cities to die in a foreign country. But this war is “sacred” only for Putin and his entourage, because this is the only meaning of their stay in power.