The enemy desperately wants to change the course of the war, but its outcome has already been decided by the Ukrainians. Therefore, the elites of the Kremlin have already begun to prepare for the distribution of power, which will change in the Kremlin after the end of the war.
At the beginning of February, the Russian Federation launched a full-scale invasion, expecting to quickly seize Ukraine and thereby begin the rebuilding of the empire. This war had no rational explanations and was caused only by the desire of the top of the Kremlin to write their name in history, because they already had money and unlimited power.
It was from the full-scale invasion that the Russian Federation fell into the funnel of its decisions. Having started a war in Ukraine and not winning it during the period of time that allowed the Russians to ignore their own losses in it, the Kremlin began to raise the stakes. Therefore, we get a situation where each subsequent decision, which does not achieve a result, only strengthens the contradictions within the Russian elites. After all, when a new missile strike, or a “referendum” or gas blackmail does not work, the Russian leadership becomes weak in the eyes of its population and even those around it.
In such situations, terror acts as an element of maintaining power. But every crime and the resources spent on it create contradictions within the system. Everything has a limit to rationality. Always, in any systems, there is a specific vision of processes and risk assessment. Crossing it, every subsequent decision of the ruling group is questioned by other groups. Here we get a situation where each subsequent decision that does not achieve a result only increases the disagreement. Every effect of euphoria after the missile launches in Russian society will work against the Kremlin in case of further failures. As a result, the Kremlin is trapped by its decisions, because it must continue to increase the brutality that is already working against it. Every crime of the Russians only unites the Ukrainians and becomes a reason for the allies to increase their support for Ukraine, and therefore plays against the Russian Federation.
Although Moscow still believes that it will be able to win everything, the Russian elites have already begun to prepare for turbulence. Moreover, some of them began to use the situation to build up power, creating an imbalance within the Kremlin. We are talking about Prigozhin and Kadyrov, who actually created parallel armies and regularly attack the “Minister of Attack” Shoigu in the media. The latter is already under their influence and forced to obey their will.
Kadyrov troops are an unruly element of the Russian army who take control of captured regions and loot them. They rarely fight at the front and are effectively a blocking unit. Given their ethnic and historical characteristics, they are not patriots of the Russian Federation and are not under the control of the Russians. Prigozhin is the second person in the Russian Federation to have his own military structure. Having gone from a criminal to Putin’s cook, he is now almost completely devoted to his master. However, every year it becomes more and more powerful. And as his personal weight within the Russian Federation increases, his loyalty to the dictator decreases.
At the same time, there are already reports that the former acting Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is also preparing to create a puppet party. According to the plan, he should become a radical analogue of the “united Russian Federation” and replace Zhirinovsky in this role, in order to take control of radicals dissatisfied with “Putin’s softness”.
At the moment, everything looks “harmonious”, as long as power is centrally held by Putin. However, in the Russian Federation, the legitimacy of power is power, not elections. Therefore, every weakness of the announcer triggers processes inside the Kremlin. The apotheosis of this should be the defeat of the Russian Federation. Then all these elites will begin to share a piece of power, and there is no guarantee that the conditional handsome will not try to seize power by military means, and the conditional Kadyrov with his army will refuse to bow to the new leader. And we are not talking about other security forces, including those dissatisfied with the growing imbalance within the Kremlin, such as Patrushev, Naryshkin or Bortnikov.
The actions of the leader of the state must be evaluated not by the indicator, as it was with him, but by what he left behind. Putin leaves behind a weak Russian Federation: in economic isolation, dependent on China and out of the orbit of influence of almost all the countries of the former USSR.
The Kremlin wanted to return to the times of the empire, but returned to the times of turmoil. At one time, it was from the occupation of Ukraine that the empire was formed, now it is from the attempt to occupy Ukraine that the empire came to an end. And the opposition of Ukrainians, who prevented Moscow from implementing its plans for victory in Ukraine, makes a key contribution to this.